About 6 in 10 Women Will Develop Cardiovascular Disease by 2050, AHA Forecasts

Health factors such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity are also expected to increase, according to the American Heart Association.

A nurse at Three Rivers Asante Medical Center responds to a situation in the Intensive Care Unit in Grants Pass, Ore., on Sept. 9, 2021. Nathan Howard/Getty Images

New research released by the American Heart Association (AHA) shows that a majority of women in the United States are expected to have one type of cardiovascular disease—including heart attack or stroke—over the next 25 years.

In a study published Feb. 25 in the AHA journal Circulation, researchers said nearly six in 10 adult women will have some form of cardiovascular disease, including heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke, in that period—up from five in 10 in 2020.

The AHA cited historical trends from two national health surveys and estimates in the Census for population growth.

Heart disease is considered the leading cause of death for women in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Currently, about 44 percent of women in the United States, or 60 million, are living with some type of heart disease, the CDC stated on its website, noting that about one in five female deaths in 2023 were attributed to heart disease.

AHA’s researchers also projected that significant health factors that contribute to cardiovascular disease—high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity—are also expected to increase by the year 2050.

Around a third of all women aged 22 to 44 are also anticipated to have some form of cardiovascular disease in the same period, according to the AHA paper. Currently, about a quarter of women in that age cohort have one type of cardiovascular disease, the paper states.

“One in every three women will die from cardiovascular disease—maybe it’s your grandmother, or your mother, or your daughter,” Karen Joynt Maddox, a professor of medicine with the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and lead author of the study, said in a statement.

“Additionally, more than 62 million women in the U.S. are living with some type of cardiovascular disease, and that comes with a price tag of at least $200 billion, annually. Our estimates indicate that if we stay on the current path, these numbers will grow substantially over the next 25 to 30 years.”

According to the research paper, hypertension among all adult women is expected to increase to 59.1 percent in 2050 from 48.6 percent in 2020, while diabetes may increase to 25.3 percent from 14.9 percent and obesity may increase to 61.2 percent from 43.9 percent in that period, respectively.

They noted that coronary disease will increase to 8.21 percent from 6.85 percent, heart failure to 3.6 percent from 2.45 percent, stroke to 6.74 percent from 4.14 percent, and atrial fibrillation to 32 percent from 19.6 percent over the coming 25 years. “Total cardiovascular disease and stroke” may increase to 14.4 percent from 10.7 percent by 2025, according to the AHA.

Among girls and young adult women, aged 2 to 19, there is a projected increase in obesity from 19.6 percent in 2020 to 32 percent in 2050, according to the AHA.

In a separate comment published by the AHA, Joynt Maddox noted that the rise in cardiovascular disease over the coming decades could also be attributed to broader trends. The U.S. population is growing older, and women tend to live longer than men, she said.

“The population is aging,” she said. “The baby boomers are hitting their 60s and 70s, the age where cardiovascular disease tends to occur, and people are living longer.”

It’s not clear whether the paper took into account the skyrocketing usage of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy, which have been shown to cause weight loss and lower instances of Type 2 diabetes.

The AHA didn’t respond to a request for comment.